By Jacob Stern, Deputy Director, Massachusetts Chapter
While 2020 was an incredibly chaotic election, the most impactful change was, of course, the election of Vice President Biden. In Massachusetts, Vice President Biden defeated President Trump by a nearly two-to-one margin, winning even a handful of right-leaning towns that voted for the President in 2016. President-elect Biden’s commitment to aggressive climate action will be a full one eighty from the current administration’s approach. Even if the Biden administration is unable to muster legislative support needed for a broad investment in green infrastructure, the executive branch has ample opportunities to reduce our nation’s emissions. The President makes EPA appointments, his administration determines clean energy regulatory standards, he has the power to accelerate the adoption of offshore wind, and rejoin the Paris Climate Accord to name a few examples. In Massachusetts, we will seek to capitalize on this momentum to push for corresponding state and local policies.
Election Results
That being said, despite a chaotic election at the national level, state elections will likely not result in much change in the status quo. In Massachusetts, Democrats will continue to dominate state and federal offices in 2021-2022. After his contentious primary, Senator Markey coasted to an easy victory, Massachusetts re-elected all eight of its incumbent U.S. Representatives in uncontested or nominally contested races, and the only change in the state's congressional delegation is that Newton City Councilor Jake Auchincloss will replace outgoing Rep. Joe Kennedy in the 4th congressional district.
In 2020, only two incumbents were defeated in Democratic primaries: Jim Welch (Hampden Senate) and David Nangle (17th Middlesex House). In the case of Welch, our endorsed candidate Adam Gomez won. Nangle, who is currently facing federal charges for fraud, lost a three-way race to Vanna Howard. Lisa Arnold, the Sierra Club-endorsed candidate in the race, came in third. However, Sierra Club-endorsed candidates won five open seat races. Erika Uyterhoeven (27th Middlesex House), Steve Owens (29th Middlesex House), Brandy Fluker Oakley (12th Suffolk House), Meg Kilcoyne (12th Worcester House), and Adam Scanlon (14th Bristol House) will all be sworn in to the 192nd Massachusetts General Court in January 2021. Overall, seventeen new State Representatives and State Senators will be joining the Massachusetts legislature. Democrats netted one additional seat in both chambers, bringing their majority in the Massachusetts Senate to an eye-watering 37-3. Despite Republicans’ losses, it is notable that they still managed to fend off a number of strong challenges across the state in a year where Democrat top-of-the-ticket candidates dominated statewide.
Unfortunately, these electoral changes will likely not change the dynamics of our State House. Not one member of the current State House or Senate leadership teams will be leaving this year, despite multiple (unsuccessful) primary challenges. The House, which has historically favored an incremental approach to climate and environmental policies, will very likely continue to be reticent to pass the far-reaching bills that would ultimately allow the state to embrace the much-needed urgent transition to a clean energy economy.
Challenges
This election happened under unprecedented circumstances that certainly impacted the viability of many of our endorsed candidates. There were five main factors that combined to make the political landscape especially tough for challengers and first-time candidates.
- Primarily, the COVID-19 pandemic created a number of unexpected issues. For example, candidates like Jordan Meehan, who declared early in 2020, sought to leverage grassroots power by activating a younger, more diverse cohort of voters. However, since campaigns were unable to use typical door-to-door tactics, they had to rely instead on less effective phone banking, literature drops, and mailers.
- Turnout exceeded all expectations in both the primary and general elections, likely due to both the push for vote-by-mail and the interest in the top-of-the-ticket races. Turnout broke all-time records in both the primary (1.7 million) and the general election (3.5 million). In some districts, this meant massive spikes in turnout, throwing off candidates’ predictions and planning. For example, in Meehan’s Allston/Brighton State House District, 4,513 voters voted in the 2018 primary. In the 2020 primary, 7,858 people voted — a staggering 74% increase in a single election cycle.
- Both high turnout and lack of typical in-person campaign tactics served to compound the advantage of incumbency. High turnout meets that more "low information voters" cast ballots. These are folks who are less likely to pay attention to local races and lean towards incumbents who generally have better name recognition. In the case of the Allston/Brighton race, one of the polling locations was actually named after the incumbent.
- Additionally, opposing forces worked hard to protect incumbents in many key primary races. The Massachusetts Majority PAC, an entity affiliated with Charlie Baker, "spent $154,687 in August [2020] backing 22 candidates – 18 Democrats and four Republicans, mostly for state legislative seats. Nineteen of the PAC’s candidates won, including three Democrats and two Republicans who were running for open House seats..." (source: Commonwealth Magazine 9/2/20)
- Lastly, the decision to make September 1st the state primary day created confusion for renters moving on that day. Many who moved that day were unclear if they were supposed to vote in their old district or their new one. While the expansion of vote-by-mail created new, safe ways for voters to cast ballots, it presented challenges as well. For example, in the primary, there was only one ballot drop box for the entire city of Boston.
Our Program
The Sierra Club’s Massachusetts political program has grown tremendously in the last three years. Our Chapter went from making endorsements in a handful of local races in 2017 to, in 2020, making 50+ endorsements in municipal, state, and federal races. The Chapter has added a Political Action Committee (PAC), an Independent Expenditure Action Committee (IEAC), a volunteer-led voter outreach team, and a political internship program to build our electoral power across the state. In so doing, we have expanded our volunteer teams who engage in political work from just a single team that handles endorsements to multiple teams, each with a specific focus: fundraising, digital communications, and outreach to Sierra Club members.
Moving forward into 2021, we are hopeful that we will have some relief from the pandemic, but regardless, our aim will be to continue to invest in local community organizing. By building local power at the grassroots level and supporting small local activist teams, we will continue to win local victories and build momentum for the statewide policies we so desperately need. At the same time, we plan on scaling up the political volunteer teams that currently exist to engage deeply in the upcoming municipal elections in 2021, including a Boston mayoral and city council race, and governor’s race in 2022. In each of these races, electing a climate champion could make all the difference.
To get involved in our political work, go to sc.org/massvolunteer and sign up or contact Jacob Stern (jacob.stern@sierraclub.org), Massachusetts Chapter Deputy Director.