Global Warming

Tilley's Track

by Prof Allen Tilley

Disclaimer: The material in this section is not necessarily the policy of the Sierra Club. The referenced materials are the responsibility of the publishers/writers and Mr. Tilley’s analysis is intended to provoke thought and action, but not necessarily endorsed.

Sent 12/9

1. Researchers at Australia’s Monash University have developed a lithium sulfur battery which is much more powerful than conventional lithium batteries; the LiS batteries are also lighter and cheaper and have other desirable features.  They will improve the performance of everything from cell phones to autos to ocean liners and airplanes.  Ghove Energy is developing the new battery and expects to have it on the market within two years.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/11/29/lightweight-fast-charging-lithium-sulfur-batteries-unveiled/

2. In a video at the end of the article above two founders of Clean Technica recall the recent history of the development of renewable energy and look forward to its future place in the US economy, with particular attention to the role of Chinese technical development in global climate action. What may we expect from the fossil fuel industry? From the Trump administration?  The first 40 minutes surveys the situation broadly; the second half deals with Elon Musk and is also rewarding if narrower.

 3. Renewables accounted for almost 90% of new US power capacity in the first three quarters of 2025. Renewables now comprise 30% of our total energy capacity. https://renews.biz/97406/renewables-supply-90-of-us-power-generation/

 4. New Jersey’s Eos Energy Enterprises has been granted a $303 million federal loan for a factory in Turtle Creek, PA, which will produce zinc-bromine batteries for 3-12 hour energy storage. The batteries are non-flammable, do not require cooling to operate at room temperature, do not degrade with age and only slowly with use, are cost-efficient, and use only US-sourced materials. By 2027 the company intends to produce enough batteries annually to provide 8 GWH of backup power, enough to meet the power needs of 130,000 homes. https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/46403-battery-maker-closes-on-federal-303-5m-loan-guarantee-to-manufacture-more-bess/

 5. The development of renewable energy in the US has run somewhat ahead of our distribution capacity. In one area we have surpluses of energy, in another a need but insufficient transmission. SunTrain plans to run trainloads of batteries to replace the transmission lines until they can be constructed. In place of the old coal trains we will have battery trains. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/12/07/renewable-energy-on-rails-scheme-to-cure-transmission-line-blues/

6. If you are wondering what you can do by way of climate action that would be effective, Project Drawdown offers a table comparing the options. https://drawdown.org/solutions/table-of-solutions

You may notice that food and food waste provide the most rewarding areas for action. https://drawdown.org/insights/whats-the-best-climate-action-you-can-take-you-tell-me

The Project has a graph comparing the impact of your twenty best options for climate action.  https://drawdown.org/insights/the-powerful-role-of-household-actions-in-solving-climate-change

The Planetary Health Diet serves the needs of the planet, your health, and world hunger. It is a flexible diet which provides options for modest servings of meat and dairy. The EAT-Lancet Summary Report describes the diet in some detail. https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/eat-lancet-commission-summary-report/

I believe the best way to implement the diet is to follow the general proportions without measuring or counting. If you decide to take meaningful action by following a plant-based diet, the Face Book public group Planetary Health Diet Recipes and Notes has helpful suggestions. https://www.facebook.com/share/g/188kiLcZNY/ 

Sent 11/8

1. A claim by Tyson that they are targeting zero greenhouse emissions by 2050 is under court challenge. As the article’s title asserts, it’s time to accept that there is no such thing as climate smart beef. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/10/19/its-time-to-accept-that-there-is-no-such-thing-as-climate-smart-beef/

2. Birds have covert feathers on the leading surfaces of their wings which allow them to fly in conditions which lead aircraft to stall. Tests with flaps on the leading edge of aircraft wings uncovered great advantages. “The researchers tested configurations with a single flap and with multiple flaps ranging from two rows to five rows. They found that the five-row configuration improved lift by 45%, reduced drag by 30% and enhanced the overall wing stability.”  https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1062424

The implications for electric planes should be game-changing. They should be able to carry greater loads further at a given level of power. They should also be better able to deal with turbulence, which is increasing as the atmosphere heats.

3. The Footprint Project in Louisiana has provided 50 solar microgrids to areas which had lost power to storms. The goal of the project is to provide a supply of solar cells, batteries, and associated provisions which can be checked out to needy communities. https://energynews.us/2024/10/24/this-disaster-relief-nonprofit-is-pioneering-a-clean-energy-alternative-to-noisy-polluting-generators

4. A mold from Indonesia can transform waste food into tasty dishes, with great implications for food emissions and our food supply. https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/oncom-fermented-fungus-food-waste-solution-study/

5. Carbon Brief hosted a one hour panel discussion of the impact on climate action of our expressed preference for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Here are my notes on the comments of the four panelists:

Camilla Born, former UK senior official at COP 26: The biggest hit will be to the confidence of international actors. Under the convention rules, it will be a year before the US can withdraw, and they can reenter. The discussion at COP 29 next week, and generally, could actually improve as the constraints posed by the presence of US special interests become less significant. China’s place in discussions will shift.

Mohamed Adow, founding director of Power Shift Africa: Trump will not be allowed to hold climate action hostage. But there’s a risk that other countries will withhold resources. New leaders will have to step forward. We are not going to panic. No one can run from the climate crisis, though the US is retreating from the world stage and will be to some extent left behind. The climate tax credits are already baked into US law. Much of the US support for action will now come from the individual US states. The US government will now be distrusted. The technology will now come from China. We will now depend on the global majority.

Simon Evans, deputy editor and senior policy editor at Carbon Brief: A retreat from emissions controls in the US could add 4 billion tonnes of emissions by 2030, the entire benefit of renewables developed globally in the last 5 years. It could be worse if drilling and LNG exports are increased.

Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute: We are confronted by much good climate news. Climate financing is our challenge. We must reunite and accelerate our actions. The US is making things more difficult. The US-China dialogue may move to non-state actors. China will progress on the green economy track and take more leadership. China will form a new coalition as US influence wanes. The greatest drive of change is not political but economic. The US risks falling behind and losing this race. The US and China will need to realign on the credit issue. The US withdrawal complicates the situation.

Carbon Brief will post a recording of the discussion on their web site. Their free newsletters are worth your time. https://www.carbonbrief.org/ 

Sent 10/2

1. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, the cost of renewable energy continues to fall. On a global average, solar PV power is now 56% below the cost of energy from fossil fuels; onshore wind is 67% less. https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-and-wind-less-than-half-the-cost-of-fossil-fuels-as-price-falls-continue/

The IRENA report on which the story is based: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2024/Sep/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2023

2. Some EVs, at least some Teslas, caught fire in Hurricane Helene when salt water entered their battery chamber. The Clean Technica article is the best I have seen on the issue. Until the conditions of the conflagrations are clearer and fixes made, I intend to keep my Bolt from wading. I know that Helena left many without the option. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/29/flood-fire-risk-with-evs-at-least-some-ev-packs-need-better-water-sealing/

3. People in the US are tending to move to the areas most greatly exposed to climate risk, including the state of Florida and Asheville, NC. https://thinc.blog/2024/10/02/moving-into-the-maw-americans-flock-to-climate-risk-areas/

4. The Volo Foundation has organized a program of events for Florida Climate Week, Oct. 7-12. I think you will find many of the offerings worth your time. At 9 a.m. Friday, Oct. 11, I have a half hour tape: The Planetary Health Diet, Your Most Effective Climate Action. https://floridaclimateweek.org/schedule-of-events/ I am representing the Sierra Club’s Climate Adaptation and Restoration Team, which is undertaking a campaign to invite people to try the diet. Agriculture is the emissions area most difficult to approach, because it depends on people undertaking to change their behavior. Regulation and subsidies will have a difficult task in reducing our intake of hamburgers and pork barbeque—though if we moved our food subsidies from beef to beans it would be a boost.

My tape is pretty rough. I have an editing program which I hope to learn before I undertake to polish the presentation a bit, but here is the current state. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wncGBT9bJvI

Sent 9/2

1. An article in Nature Climate Change projects that global adoption of the Planetary Health Diet would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17%. In overconsuming countries such as the US, the reduction would be about 32.4%. The study looked at consumption of 140 food products in 139 countries. https://phys.org/news/2024-08-planetary-health-diet-emissions-environmental.html 

 2. The article is open access; here is the whole thing. As technical articles go, it is readable and informative (at least, until you reach the Methods section). For example, poor countries, with inadequate nutrition and high inequality in diet, will see an increase of emissions with the diet. Wealthier countries will more than offset the increase. It goes unsaid that the result would be a healthier and more sustainable world. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02084-1

 3. A successful climate action plan must include a diet which features less meat and dairy than are currently consumed in developed nations. Moving to such a diet is the most effective climate action most of us could take. The national Sierra Club’s Climate Adaptation and Restoration Team, of which I am a member, has endorsed the Planetary Health Diet. The Northeast Florida Sierra Club Group is the first local club to publicize the PHD and to invite its 1500 members to try it out. The Green Sanctuary Committee of The Unitarian Universalist Church of Jacksonville has also undertaken a PHD invitation campaign. If you know of a group working to publicize the diet, please let me know by email to atilley@unf.edu so that I can acknowledge the effort on this list. A public Facebook group has been established to share information: Planetary Health Diet Recipes and Notes. If you would like to start a campaign to invite people to try the diet, I have handouts, posters, and some information to share.

 4. Kelp permaculture has long been proposed to sequester carbon. The fast-growing kelp would be grown near shore where there are nutrients and then towed to deep water and allowed to sink, where it would not rot and its embodied carbon would be sequestered for, perhaps, thousands of years. Recent study has discovered complications in the scenario which have not yet doomed the proposal, but suggest that further study might. https://www.science.org/content/article/can-dumping-seaweed-sea-floor-cool-planet-some-scientists-are-skeptical 

 5. New batteries for electric vehicles are usually broken in by charging them with low current for long periods of time. If you charge them normally from the beginning they last 50% longer. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/01/ev-battery-makers-have-been-doing-it-wrong-this-whole-time/