Key Messages from the National Climate Assessment

The world felt the heat from the severity of the 2018 IPCC report, the most up-to-date and comprehensive explanation of the science of climate change and the future of Earth. The details within has become an international topic worthy of much conversation and action. This report followed by another equally concerning comprehensive piece of scientific literature, the Fourth National Climate Assessment, which was released on November 23rd 2018, the day after Thanksgiving. This caused the assessment to be pushed under the radar of many Americans as they were preoccupied with Thanksgiving dinner and Black Friday sales. Now that we are back to business as usual, let us look at the value we can gain from this very important report. The report has several chapters detailing the change in climate and its impacts based on different regions in the United States. Let’s dive into our region, the Northeast, and the five key messages the authors summarized.

Key Messages

#1: Changing Seasons Affect Rural Ecosystems, Environments, and Economies.
The seasonality of the Northeast is very special and imperative to the region’s sense of place, which makes it an important driver of rural economies. Adverse impacts to the sectors of tourism, farming, and forestry are already happening as we experience less distinct seasons with milder winters and earlier spring conditions, which alter ecosystems and environments. This means that the region’s rural industry livelihoods are at risk from further changes to forests, wildlife, snowpack, and streamflow.

#2: Changing Coastal and Ocean Habitats, Ecosystem Services, and Livelihoods.
The Northeast coast is a major hub that supports commerce, tourism, and recreation. These are important to the region’s economy and way of life. Warmer ocean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification threaten these services. As climate risks increase, the ecological and socio-economic outcomes of marine ecosystems and coastal communities will depend on their adaptive capacity.

#3: Maintaining Urban Areas and Communities and Their Interconnectedness.
It is no surprise that the Northeast is known for hosting urban centers with interconnections that are regional and national hubs for cultural and economic activity. As climate change continues, we can expect major negative impacts on critical infrastructure, urban economies, and nationally significant historic sites to become more common.

#4: Threats to Human Health.
The health and well-being of people in the Northeast is threatened as we experience more extreme weather, warmer temperatures, degradation of air and water quality, and sea level rise caused by a changing climate. Additionally, these environmental changes are expected to lead to health-related impacts and costs, including additional deaths, emergency room visits and hospitalizations, and a lower quality of life. Furthermore, health impacts are expected to vary by location, age, current health, and other characteristics of individuals and communities. This means climate change can disproportionately affect those who do not have the resources or energy to respond effectively.

#5: Adaptation to Climate Change is Underway.
There is good news. Communities in the Northeast are proactively planning and implementing actions to reduce risks posed by climate change. However, to do our best we need your help! There is always more that can be done. Learning from what has not worked in the past, being aware of the unique requirements of systems in our region, and applying adaptation strategies is fundamental toward our fight against the effects of climate change.

The report highlights some additional key points:

Much of the infrastructure in the Northeast, including drainage and sewer systems, flood and storm protection assets, transportation systems, and power supply, is nearing the end of its planned life expectancy. What does this mean?

1. Climate-related disruptions will only exacerbate existing issues with aging infrastructure. The Ellicott City floods are one reminder of the effects on a community from a major storm.

2. Service infrastructure in the Northeast is also at risk of disruption, resulting in lower quality of life, economic declines, and enhanced social inequality. When you decrease public services it affects the capacity of communities to function as administrative and economic centers. They become less connected to the supply chain that other communities depend on as well.

The coastal landscape of the Northeast is under threat from future impacts of intense storm activity. Sea level rise is leading to an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding, a trend that is projected to grow for cities such as Baltimore and Washington, DC, both densely populated areas. The flooding in Ellicott City Floods were instances where people’s livelihoods were put on the line. A variety of adaptation strategies will be needed in the future if they are to be protected.

The photo shows king tide flooding on Dock Street in Annapolis, Maryland, on December 21, 2012. Photo credit: Amy McGovern

Another key note is how the failure of the energy supply system can affect many operations. Transportation operations can be affected primarily, and even after electricity is restored, a significant time lag can occur until transportation services, such as subway signals and traffic lights return to operation. To combat this, optimizing previous public transportation infrastructure, such as air vents is a good place to start. For example, adapting toward climate change resilience is an effort New York City has taken and been able to make a reality by installing raised-multi-use beds on their subway air vents. This is a great way to use space, protect the public, and promote a multi-modal community.

The photo shows a subway air vent with a multi-use raised flood protection grate that was installed as part of the post–Superstorm Sandy coastal resilience efforts on West Broadway in lower Manhattan, New York City. Photo credit: William Solecki.

There is still more to be done. In order to keep up with the fight against climate change we must expand our thinking beyond the new information provided by the assessment. Integrating the assessment into open-discussions with a variety of sectors in ways that promote adaptation and respect of interests will be pivotal toward long-term solutions. As the assessment shows, the Northeast is not alone in feeling the affects of a changing climate. All across the United States climate change will affect all of us in similar and different ways. Looking beyond our country, the entire planet shares this reality. Likewise, we are not alone in ensuring the protection of individuals, communities, economies, and nature for a future we can all be proud of.

I encourage everyone to take a look at the report here. As always, thank you for reading and being a part of the fight for a greener and healthier future!

Semir Abdul

Fall 2018 Transportation Intern

USGCRP, 2018: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.