After years of pressuring the U.S. government to approve the Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry tar-sands oil from Alberta across the U.S.-Canada border to refineries on the Gulf Coast, on Monday pipeline builder TransCanada suddenly asked the U.S. State Department to "pause" its review of the permit application.

TransCanada claims that because the Nebraska Public Service Commission is reviewing the pipeline’s route in the state after residents challenged the state’s approval process, a delay is in order. But few pipeline watchers on either side of the debate are buying that argument, since TransCanada has long complained about delays in the permit process, which began in 2006. 

TransCanada's turnabout, writes the Wall Street Journal, "comes in the face of an expected rejection by the Obama administration and low oil prices that are sapping business interest in Canada’s oil reserves." If Obama kills the pipeline, TransCanada would have to start from scratch if it still wants to pursue the project; a delay could push a final decision until after a new U.S. president, perhaps a pipeline-friendly Republican, is elected.

“TransCanada appears to be thinking that ‘nothing’ is better than ‘no,'” Kevin Book, managing director of the research and strategy firm ClearView Energy Partners, told FuelFix, the Houston Chronicle's energy-industry newsletter. Jane Kleeb, founder of the anti-pipeline group Bold Nebraska, called TransCanada's request a "Hail Mary" play. "The route in Nebraska has been uncertain for years," Kleeb told the Omaha World-Herald. "The only difference is they know they are losing now."

Environmental groups, including the Sierra Club and 350.org, are pressuring the Obama administration to deny TransCanada's permit once and for all. On Monday, White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters, "Our expectation at this point is that the president will make a decision before the end of his administration on the Keystone pipeline, but when exactly that will be, I don't know at this point."