NEW REPORT: Global coal power under development in 2019 declined for fourth year in a row

LINK TO REPORT

WASHINGTON, D.C. — For the fourth year in a row, the number of coal-fired power plants under development worldwide dropped steeply in 2019, according to a new report released today by Global Energy Monitor, Greenpeace International, the Sierra Club, and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. 

The report, Boom and Bust 2020: Tracking The Global Coal Plant Pipeline, is the fifth annual survey of the coal plant pipeline. Its findings include a 16% year-on-year drop in capacity under construction and in pre-construction development, and a 66% drop since 2015. Construction starts were down 5% from 2018 and 66% from 2015, compared to 2019. 

Despite the decline in development, the coal fleet grew by 34.1 gigawatts (GW) in 2019, the first increase in net capacity additions since 2015. Nearly two-thirds (43.8 GW) of the 68.3 GW of newly commissioned capacity was in China. Outside China, the global coal fleet overall shrank for the second year in a row, as these other countries together retired more coal power capacity (27.2 GW) than was commissioned (24.5 GW). 

“Global power generation from coal fell by a record amount in 2019, as renewable energy grew and power demand slowed down,” said Christine Shearer, lead author and Director of Global Energy Monitor’s Coal Program. “Regardless, the number of new plants added to the grid accelerated, meaning that the world’s coal plants were operated a lot less – more plants generating less power. For banks and investors that continue to underwrite new coal plants, this means weakened profitability and increased risk.”

Even as coal power development shrank in the rest of the world, alarming trends in China continue. The amount of new coal power capacity added to the grid increased in 2019, even as the utilization of coal plants fell further, indicating worsening overcapacity. Previously shelved coal power projects were re-activated as controls on overcapacity were loosened further.

“The coal power lobby in China is pushing for hundreds of new coal-fired power plants by 2030, starkly at odds with China’s pledge to be a contributor in the fight against climate change,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “As policymakers look for ways to stimulate the economy after the coronavirus crisis, a wave of new coal plants would be the worst kind of waste. Both China’s climate pledges and the increasing competitiveness of clean energy technologies mean that clean energy installations will accelerate, leaving no space for coal-fired generation to grow.”  

Within members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), coal power capacity has been declining since 2011. Nearly half of the retired coal power capacity in 2019 was in the US, the second highest on record. In the European Union, retirements were the fourth highest. Under Trump, US coal plant retirements have increased 67% compared to Obama. Retirements averaged 8.2 GW a year during Obama’s tenure (2009–2016), and 13.7 GW a year during Trump’s tenure (2017–2019) (see figure below).

"Coal plant retirements have not just continued over the past three years under the Trump Administration, they have accelerated," said Neha Mathew-Shah, International Environmental Justice Representative for the Sierra Club. "Coal simply cannot compete with cheaper, less-polluting alternatives of the modern energy economy. It is time for the U.S. to acknowledge the writing on the wall and embrace the clean energy transition." 

As the U.S. and EU move away from coal, Japan is now the biggest driver of new coal power in the OECD. Japan has 11.9 GW of coal power under development domestically that would increase lifetime carbon dioxide emissions from its existing coal fleet by 50% (from 3.9 to 5.8 billion tonnes). Outside its borders, Japanese public finance is behind 24.7 GW of coal power, larger than the coal fleet of Australia (24.4 GW). 

“Though coal is still advancing in some Asian countries, the rest of the world is clearly seeing an overall decline in the coal fleet. This is an international trend that is only going to continue,” said Gyorgy Dallos, Global Strategist for Greenpeace International. “Unfortunately China and Japan are still increasingly out of step with global trends, becoming the biggest countries building new coal plants and financing coal power development in Asia."

Even with the fall in coal plant development in 2019, the world is not on track for the steep reductions in coal power necessary to meet the Paris climate agreement. Coal power use needs to fall 80% by 2030 to keep global warming below 1.5°C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the United Nations has called for 2020 to be the global end date for new coal plant proposals.

“The world already has far more coal power capacity than it can run under the goals of the Paris agreement,” said Greig Aitken, Finance Research Analyst for Global Energy Monitor. “It’s time for financiers to align with reality."  

###

Note: The average size for coal-fired generating units is 350 megawatts, with most power stations having two or more such units.

Read the report here.
Additional summary tables here.
Global Coal Plant Tracker methodology here.