By Tony Hagen • editor@newjersey.sierraclub.org
NJ Transit has been engaged in a redesign of the bus routes in Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties (BCG), but like some of NJ Transit’s buses and trains, this overhaul is running behind schedule.
Final recommendations for change were due out at the turn of this year, but as of this writing even the draft recommendations had yet to be released. The “NewBus BCG” redesign is essential because BCG bus routes have not been comprehensively updated in at least two decades, and during that time ridership declines have been steady and precipitous, not merely because of the pandemic.
The agency is about to embark on a $250 million overhaul of BCG’s bus and train transportation hub, the Walter Rand Transportation Center (WRTC).
NJ Transit and professional planners would agree that appropriate analysis is essential to ensure the reasons for ridership declines are understood and further investments succeed in bringing them back into the system.
It is essential to ask whether NJ Transit is still going where the people are going, and if it is, why aren’t they riding the buses in BCG?
Despite promises of regular updates and public involvement, very little information about the NewBus BCG overhaul has been provided. The information for the analyses described below was obtained by Open Public Records Act requests. It is important for the public to know more about the methodology underlying the NewBus BCG overhaul to have confidence that the money earmarked for this and the WRTC makeover will be well spent.
Falling Ridership
The pandemic crushed ridership all over New Jersey, but in BCG ridership was already in steep decline before the arrival of Covid-19 (Figure).
For 26 BCG bus routes in operation between October 2005 and October 2022, median weekday passenger volume declined 58% (from 35,083 to 14,544). Excluding the pandemic dip, BCG ridership from October 2005 to October 2019 fell 33%. The pandemic low point was 12,330 passengers.
October 2022 BCG bus ridership was down 38% from the pre-pandemic high, indicating that ridership levels are not close to recovery from just that 3-year aberration. It appears that the pandemic has accelerated a trend in ridership decline that was already well established. One bus route in the BCG area was carrying as few as eight passengers a day in October 2022, down from a high of 65 in October 2007.
Some cutbacks in Philadelphia service are known to have hurt ridership, and the trend toward mail-order shopping and remote working are potential culprits. Chronic bus operator shortages have afflicted South Jersey bus routes, causing service interruptions that weigh heavily on rider numbers. NJ Transit should acknowledge this and begin publicizing missed trip data by NJ bus operating region, as was done for rail transport.
As part of NewBus BCG, NJ Transit did a ridership survey, and the most frequent comments, in descending order, were a desire for more frequent service, more weekend service, more reliable service, more destinations, and earlier and later hours.
A squeaky wheel analysis showed that most comments came from passengers on seven of the most heavily traveled bus routes. For 12 routes, there were at most eight comments for each; and in total there were 248 comments for 27 bus routes in all, which was a response rate of less than 2%.
While it is important to hear from riders about their concerns, it is equally or more important to hear from the thousands of riders who once used the system and no longer do, or from those who could but won’t.
The Demographic Picture
Development and demographics tell a different story from the ridership totals. Growth maps indicate tremendous development has occurred in BCG over the past 20 years, much of it in the form of single-family housing developments, which are inappropriate for bus service due to huge walking distances to stops. There has also been much concentrated retail/industrial development that is appropriate for bus service.
The BCG population increased 4.7% from 2005 to 2021, and poverty (2014-2022) has increased in Burlington County (7.1% vs 7.6%), while declining in Camden and Gloucester (13.1% vs 12% and 8% vs 7.7%, respectively), according to US Census Bureau data. This might suggest a static or rising need for public transportation. The sharp rise in inflation and the prospect of recession could also drive people back to public transportation.
Overhauling WRTC
In Camden the $250 million WRTC makeover is the centerpiece of a plan to revitalize the downtown, improve connectivity, and streetscape safety. It is designed also to support major expansion of academic, medical, and business facilities. One of the most comprehensive reports on this project stresses its potential to counter the perception that downtown Camden is not safe or walkable.
The security problem is verified by literally hundreds of comments NJ Transit received in response to a survey asking about improvements needed at WRTC. Commuters said the terminal is overrun by the homeless, drug addicts, drug dealers, and panhandlers. They said it is filthy, poorly lit and signed, and smells overpoweringly of urine. Many said their personal safety is their constant preoccupation and they use WRTC only when necessary.
“I love taking public transportation, but I am scared to get off the train in Camden,” one commuter wrote. “The drug usage and potential danger with lack of police presence keeps me driving my car in New Jersey.”
These views were reiterated during a well-attended NJ Transit public information session in Camden January 30, 2023, at which spokespeople acknowledged that while $250 million has been allocated for the project, NJ Transit has not determined how to deal with the problems of illicit activity and vagrancy at WRTC. Some attendees expressed fears that added security would only push these problems into neighboring residential areas.
It’s clear that no matter how well designed and attractive the new facility is, riders are not coming back unless NJ Transit has an effective plan for managing loitering and illicit activity.
WRTC is key to any ridership revitalization in Camden, but what’s missing from the equation so far is a comprehensive study by NJ Transit that explains how the agency can do a better job of getting people out of their cars and back onto trains and buses throughout the BCG area.
Resources
NewBus BCG: bit.ly/3HOplYC
WRTC Overhaul: bit.ly/3I97DjV