Governor Brown began his fourth term Monday with a vision for how California will continue to advance clean energy and fight climate disruption over the next 15 years. “California has the most far-reaching environmental laws of any state and the most integrated policy to deal climate change of any political jurisdiction in the Western Hemisphere,” Brown said, but “these efforts, impressive though they are, are not enough” to stave off the worst impacts of climate disruption. And with that, he laid out three straightforward goals that will move the state climate agenda forward, all to be achieved on or before 2030:
- Increase the state’s share of clean energy to 50%
- Slash oil use from cars and trucks by up to 50%
- Double the efficiency of existing buildings and make heating fuels cleaner
These are extraordinary goals, and together they outline how California will act on climate and transform both how we power our homes and businesses and how we move around the state in the coming decade and beyond.
Governor Brown gave more details about his vision:
“I envision a wide range of initiatives: more distributed power, expanded rooftop solar, micro-grids, an energy imbalance market, battery storage, the full integration of information technology and electrical distribution and millions of electric and low-carbon vehicles. How we achieve these goals and at what pace will take great thought and imagination mixed with pragmatic caution. It will require enormous innovation, research and investment. And we will need active collaboration at every stage with our scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, businesses and officials at all levels.”
This expansive vision will require engagement with the growing and diverse movement that has sprung up around climate change. This vision has the potential build a more equitable and just economy. The new coalitions and partnerships developed around clean energy, good careers, clean air, and environmental justice in recent years across California will need to grow if we’re to achieve the Governor’s vision. There are still many details to be filled in around the Governor’s new plan, but in thinking about the clean energy goal in particular over the last few days, there are a few take-aways I keep circling back to.
We can do this. In fact, we’re already on our way. We currently have momentum that can take us to 50% renewable energy and beyond before 2030. To start with, let’s look at California’s progress towards the state’s current requirement of 33% renewable energy by 2020. California utilities are either on track or ahead of schedule to meet the current goal, and by 2020 we’ll have doubled our use of clean energy during the previous decade. Individual utilities are going even further. SDG&E announced last summer they’d achieve the state mandated 33% by 2020 six years early, by the end of 2014. Our review of PG&E and SCE’s renewable energy procurement efforts indicates they have enough projects in the pipeline to surpass 33% by 2020 too. Not factored in here yet is the explosive growth of rooftop solar, thanks to net-metering and the California Solar Initiative. When even assuming net-metering growth levels off in the next few years, its contribution will boost California’s share of clean energy to just shy of 40% by 2020. See the chart below:
What you see in this chart is that rooftop solar is making significant contributions to developing clean energy in California on top of the other statewide goals.
We plotted two simple trendlines to get a sense of where existing momentum would carry the state’s clean energy development over the next 15 years. When you couple our rooftop solar program (net-metering, or “NEM” in the chart above) with the state’s renewable portfolio mandate, we’re on track to reach 55% by 2030. Further cost declines, improvements in technology, and greater urgency to reduce emissions should propel faster expansion too. Rooftop solar will help lead the transition towards 100% so it was great to see local clean energy play a starring role in the Governor’s address, from the references to microgrids and distributed energy to rooftop solar, greater efficiencyand energy storage. Beyond providing cost-effective clean energy, localizing our energy system could help spur job and economic growth in the most economically disadvantaged communities.
We now have much needed clarity for long term planning. For the last few years, utility resource planning and a whole host of utility planning processes have been stunted by the lack of clarity about what happens to clean energy demand after 2020. Utilities plan on ten to twenty year time horizons, and where new generation after 2020 was required, conventional fossil fuels had been filling the gap, both when it comes to planning and to actual procurement decisions. Organizations like the California Environmental Justice Alliance and Sierra Club have argued that we cannot continue to increase reliance on gas plants, but without guidance from the Governor or legislature, that’s exactly what was happening.
Now that’s all changing. With greater clarity, we can plan the build out from 33% to 50% clean energy. A number of studies in recent years have noted some of the challenges as renewables shift to the core of our electric system. A 2013 study by E3 ran down some of the major barriers and concluded that a 50% goal is achievable.
The biggest question remains what role natural gas plants will play during the next fifteen years. For years, the gas industry has argued that gas plants are integral to backing up renewables and filling in the gaps as wind and solar ebb and flow. This argument is deeply problematic. Gas plants are often built in low income communities of color, communities that suffer from some of the worst air quality in the country. One of the biggest untold stories about Governor Brown’s plan is its hugely positive impact his plan will have on public health. The salience of this issue has already galvanized many young activists and brought new voices into California’s climate activism movement.
We cannot pretend that we’re going to meet our climate and clean energy goals on the back of fossil fuels. Rather, planning has to focus on how we use renewables to break our dependence on fossil fuels, including natural gas, and that means investing more in preferred resources like demand response, energy efficiency, energy storage, and other grid services that can help manage the grid with higher and higher levels of renewables. These are the innovations that will let us even out natural variations in wind and solar without the use of natural gas plants. In fact, we need to plan for a system that can manage 100% clean energy.
100% clean energy is closer than you think. At some point in the next decade, California could have enough clean energy available run its electric grid entirely on clean energy for periods of the day. Planning for our first 100% clean energy moment is essential, and something the CPUC needs to take up in earnest now that there’s greater certainty about the state’s direction on clean energy. The first moment will likely come on a cool, sunny spring weekend, when solar generation is high and energy demand is low, when our grid may be producing more solar energy than we actually have demand for. This could actually be quite a headache (to say the least) for grid operators, and we must begin planning for these 100% clean energy moments as they will become increasingly common in the years ahead. The E3 study mentioned earlier dives into this in detail, but I’d strongly recommend reading the joint Union of Concerned Scientists and Sierra Club filing to the California Public Utilities Commission that explored several solutions.
This is just the beginning. There are many pathways to achieving the Governor’s goal. Which particular path California takes means everything for how quickly we phase out fossil fuels and address climate change, and how Californians benefit from the transition to clean energy.
- Evan Gillespie, Director, Sierra Club My Generation Campaign