Climate Change in Alabama

 

Impacts of Climate Change in the State of Alabama

 

Temperature, Heat, and Wildfire

 

Average Annual Temperatures

  • By midcentury, the average annual temperature in Alabama will increase by 2 degrees Fahrenheit under a low emissions scenario, 3 degrees under a moderate emissions scenario, and by 4 degrees under a high emissions scenario. (Climate Impact Lab, Map)

  • By the end of the century, average temperatures in Alabama will increase by 2 degree Fahrenheit under a low emissions scenario, 4 degrees under a moderate emissions  scenario, and by a whopping 8 degrees under a high emissions scenario. (Climate Impact Lab, Map)
Extreme Heat
Wildfire

  • “Nearly 2.8 million people in Alabama live within [areas in which] vulnerability to wildfire is elevated. This represents almost 60 percent of Alabama’s population, an above average proportion.”(States At Risk: Alabama Report)

  • “By 2050, Alabama’s average number of days with high wildfire potential is projected to double from 25 to nearly 50 days a year.”(States At Risk: Alabama Report)


 

Drought and Precipitation

 

Annual Precipitation

  • “Although rainfall during spring is likely to increase during the next 40 to 50 years, the total amount of water running off into rivers or recharging groundwater is likely to decline 2.5 to 5 percent, as increased evaporation offsets the greater rainfall. Droughts are likely to be more severe, because periods without rain may be longer and very hot days will be more frequent.” (EPA: What does Climate Change Mean for Alabama)

  • “Precipitation is estimated to change little in winter, increase by 10% in spring (with a range of 5-20%), and increase by 15% in summer and fall (with a range of 5-30%). Other climate models may show different results, especially regarding estimated changes in precipitation.” (Climate Change and Alabama, 1996)
Drought

  • “By 2050, the severity of widespread summer drought is projected to see an average increase of about 85 percent; Alabama’s threat level is projected to remain average among the states assessed.” (States At Risk: Alabama Report)

  • “ Droughts are likely to be more severe, because periods without rain may be longer and very hot days will be more frequent.” (EPA: What does Climate Change Mean for Alabama)



 

Agriculture and Farming

 

  • “Even during the next few decades, hotter summers are likely to reduce yields of corn...More severe droughts, however, could cause crop failures. Higher temperatures are also likely to reduce livestock productivity, because heat stress disrupts the animals’ metabolism.”(EPA: What does Climate Change Mean for Alabama)

  • “The study concludes that climate change could potentially result in decreasing corn yields in Alabama. In 2045, representative year for 2030-2060, the projected average decreases in corn yield trends were 19.5% and 37.3%, respectively, under RCP 4.5 (medium emission) and RCP 8.5 (high emission). However, in 2075, representative year for 2060-2090, projected average decreases for corn were 32.5% and 77.8%, respectively, under RCP 4.5 (medium emission) and RCP 8.5 (high emission).” (Impact of Climate Change on Corn Yields in Alabama)

  • “Soybeans were Alabama’s second most valuable crop in 2014 with $193 million of production. Absent significant agricultural adaptation, soybean yields will likely decrease by up to 14% by 2020-2039. Alabama’s fourth most valuable crop, corn, will likely experience even steeper production declines. Corn output will likely drop by as much as 22% by 2020-2039 and as much as 44% by 2040-2059.” (Risky Business: Come Heat and High Water: Climate Risk in the Southeastern U.S and Texas)

  • “Temperate-based crops, such as wheat and peaches, will most likely suffer great losses with climate change...Under warmer-drier conditions, both crop plants and forests will suffer more frequent droughts.” (Climate Change and Its Potential Effects on Alabama's Plant Life)


 

Forestry and Ecosystems

 

  • “In contrast, under drier conditions, 40-70% of forests in the east-central part of the state could be replaced by grasslands and pasture. Warmer and drier conditions could increase the frequency and intensity of fires, which could result in increased losses to important commercial timber areas. Even warmer and wetter conditions could stress forests by increasing the winter survival of insect pests” (Climate Change and Alabama, 1996)

  • “Some of Alabama’s current ecoregions will shift northward or northeastward. Others, based on specific geological features, will constrict severely or disappear entirely.”(Climate Change and Its Potential Effects on Alabama's Plant Life)

  • “Many of Alabama’s threatened and endangered plant species will decline further with climate change and associated habitat loss... In addition to species migrations and losses, Alabama’s forests will suffer increased pest problems and increased populations of vines.” (Climate Change and Its Potential Effects on Alabama's Plant Life)

    • “As is typical of such species worldwide, Alabama’s threatened and endangered plant species reside in scarce, rare, or disappearing habitats. While all of these habitats will be affected by climate change, some will be affected more than others, or completely disappear.” (Climate Change and Its Potential Effects on Alabama's Plant Life)



 

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

 
Coastal Flooding Risk

  • “Currently, Alabama has nearly 27,000 people at risk of a 100-year coastal flood, and ranks in the bottom five states among the 22 coastal states assessed.” (States At Risk: Alabama Report)

  • “By 2050, Alabama’s coastal flood risk is projected to increase by 25 percent, putting an additional 7,000 people in the 100-year coastal floodplain.” (States At Risk: Alabama Report)

  • “Alabama currently has approximately 200 square miles in the 100-year coastal floodplain... By 2050, this is projected to double to nearly 400 square miles.” (States At Risk: Alabama Report)
Seal Level Rise

  • “Projection for Sea Level Rise in Alabama based on data from Pensacola.“Our “slow” projection for Pensacola is 0.5 feet by 2050 and 1.6 feet by 2100. The full range of projections, slow to fast, was 0.3-1.6 ft by midcentury; and, 1.6-6.1 ft, by 2100.” (Climate Central: Alabama and the Surging Sea)

  • “The cumulative cost of sand replenishment to protect the coast of  Alabama from the estimated sea level rise by 2100 is $60-$220 million.” (Climate Change and Alabama, 1996)
General Consequences

  • “Accounting for potential protections, our analysis found more than 5,000 people in the high Social Vulnerability Index class below 6 feet across Alabama - a disproportionate exposure...the total jumps to more than 12,000 below 10 feet.”(Climate Central: Alabama and the Surging Sea)

  • “We find that in Alabama, some $8.2 billion in property value, plus nearly 13,500 people living in more than 14,000 homes, sit on 323 square miles of land less than 6 feet above the local high tide line. Compared to 6 feet, more than double the total property, population and housing sit on land below 10 feet: $17.1 billion and nearly 33,000 people in nearly 31,000 homes, across 448 square miles.” (Climate Central: Alabama and the Surging Sea)

  • “Nonresidential buildings and infrastructure are widely at risk as well. All told, 290 miles of road lie on land below 6 feet in the state; 2 libraries; 2 schools; 15 houses of worship; and 199 EPA-listed sites, screened to include mostly hazardous waste sites, facilities with significant hazardous materials, and wastewater generators. At 10 feet, these numbers amount to 657 miles of road, 3 libraries, 4 schools, 50 houses of worship, and 309 EPA-listed sites. In addition, 1 oil refinery sits on land less than 10 feet above the local high tide line” (Climate Central: Alabama and the Surging Sea)