October 28, 2019
Audubon scientists studied 604 North American bird species using 140 million bird records—including observational data from bird lovers across the country. We plugged our bird data into the same climate models used by more than 800 experts in 80 countries to map where each bird might live in the future under a changing climate.Audubon’s new science shows that two-thirds (64%) (389 out of 604) of North American bird species are at risk of extinction from climate change. The good news is that our science also shows that if we take action now we can help improve the changes for 76% of species at risk.
The 2019 Birds and Climate Report has the following features:
- Assesses the vulnerability of 604 species to climate change and determines that two-thirds (64%) of the species surveyed are vulnerable to extinction (389 out of 604).
- 70+ data sources and 140+ million bird records. Sources include eBird, U.S. Geological Survey, North American Breeding Bird Survey, and Global Biodiversity Information Facility.
- Climate modeling based on 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report models for 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 degrees C of global warming.
- Uses data for North America, including Mexico.
- Includes new variables that are important for birds such as vegetation, human-land use in agriculture and urbanization, as well as group-specific variables (e.g. surface water occurrence). These were not in the 2014 report.
- 1 kilometer resolution allows for a finer level of mapping detail for both winter and summer seasons.
- Expert review process: Two ornithologists reviewed the projected impacts for each of the 604 species studied to ensure that each model was ecologically realistic.
- Includes guild-based/habitat-based analysis of bird species, such as grasslands, arctic, boreal, coastal, aridlands, etc., with tailored modeling with specific variables, particularly in summer and winter.
- Uses the latest climate modeling methods as climate science has improved since 2014. The models come from a report by an international panel of more than 800 climate change experts called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The models are based on CMIP5 data from the AR5—IPCC 5th assessment. More specifically, Adaptwest’s downscaled North American data, ClimateNA.
- Includes localized impacts of Earth’s changing climate.
- sea level rise
- urbanization
- cropland expansion
- extreme weather
- fire weather
- heavy rain
- drought
- false springs
- lake level changes