Turning Texas green is hard. The 2024 election results delivered few surprises but plenty of challenges for environmental advocates in Texas. Justice-centered and pro-climate candidates struggled across the board, reflecting national trends that reveal larger political forces at play. Indeed, there were few bright spots nationwide, which shows that no matter how strong a state or local campaign was, there were much larger political forces working against them that they could not control.
More experienced and higher paid political strategists can debate and Monday morning quarterback the election results on a deeper level than what I’ll cover here, but there aren’t that many Texas-based organizations like the Sierra Club’s Lone Star Chapter in a position to review state and local election outcomes through an environmental lens. Let’s jump right in and look at some findings.
Texas House Results: Gerrymandering Protects the Status Quo
One of the most significant obstacles to meaningful legislative change in Texas is gerrymandering. The Sierra Club is a non-partisan organization, but that doesn’t mean our objectives are unaffected by partisan gerrymandering. By design, gerrymandering creates safe seats for incumbents, and safe seats were protected on election night on both sides of the aisle.
What that means is that there were very few competitive seats in the general election. That, in turn, creates little incentive for an incumbent to challenge the status quo, and the status quo has been heavily tilted to benefit wealthy polluting special interests.
When an incumbent decides not to run for reelection, however, that can create an opportunity to flip a seat to a pro-environment candidate (or vice versa), but what we saw on November 5 was a demonstration of the overwhelming effect gerrymandering has on election outcomes. Let’s take a look at a few returns:
Bexar County: Bad but Informative Results
One of only two House seats that many thought flippable was in Bexar County.
- House District 118: Our endorsed candidate, Kristian Carranza, challenged incumbent John Lujan (37% on the Texas Legislative Scorecard). Despite optimism about flipping this seat to a pro-environment candidate following Lujan’s narrow 3.6% win in 2022, the 2024 race resulted in the exact same margin of victory for Lujan - 3.6%.
Another race in Bexar County is a good example of when there’s more opportunity to flip a seat when an incumbent does not seek reelection… or in this case, was eliminated by the Governor who sought vengeance on the incumbent for voting against his private school voucher bill last session.
- House District 121: This district saw new dynamics after Rep. Steve Allison lost his primary to right-wing candidate Marc LaHood. Laurel Jordan Swift, our endorsed candidate, halved the Republican margin compared to 2022, losing by just 5.2 points. Public school protections were a major issue here, and this district may remain competitive in 2026, especially if midterm elections continue their trend of being bad for parties in power.
There were also State House races that were thought to be competitive in Dallas County (especially HD 112), but the margins of victory were even wider in 2024 than they were in 2022. That may point again to the larger political forces at play in 2024 because our endorsed candidates appeared to run much stronger races this cycle.
Texas Senate: Little Change
With only 15 of 31 seats up for election, the Texas Senate offered few surprises. Gerrymandering played its role again, limiting competitive races.
- While we did not endorse Sen. Morgan LaMantia (71% on our scorecard) it’s worth noting she narrowly lost her seat to Adam Hinojosa, who she had previously defeated by just 1.1 points in 2022.
- Our endorsed Senators - Alvarado, Eckhardt, Cook, and Johnson - all secured reelection easily.
Unfortunately, the Senate remains a challenging landscape for clean energy, water management, and environmental protection initiatives.
Statewide Trends
Across the board in Texas, most incumbents won, and most challengers lost. All of the 27 incumbents we endorsed won reelection, including a hard fought race in Collin County - Rep. Mihaela Plesa successfully defeated a well-funded challenger to earn her second term.
Does this change the landscape for clean energy, water policy, and environmental protection legislation at the Texas Capital? To put it simply, the needle hasn’t moved that much. The two seats the Democrats lost were previously held by representatives with less than stellar environmental track records (outgoing Rep. Herrero had 61% on our last scorecard and Rep. Tracy King had 65%). Dynamics could feel very similar to the last legislative session. That’s not a good thing but it points to the need to continue to focus on educating Texans about our issues, and build grassroots support for our legislative agenda because there were several areas where we made progress last session. Constituent pressure can still shape policy!
Local Races: Bright Spots and Setbacks
Pro-environment Sierra Club-endorsed incumbents in major counties fared well:
- Dallas County: Commissioner Theresa Daniel won re-election.
- Harris County: County Attorney Christian Menefee narrowly won by 1 point.
- Travis County: District Attorney José Garza secured a decisive victory.
At the city level, there were mixed results where we made endorsements.
- Corpus Christi: Incumbent Sylvia Campos won District 2 by 10 points, while Eric Cantu, another endorsed candidate, triumphed in District 3. However, Jim Klein (Chair of the Coastal Bend Sierra Club) narrowly lost his at-large race by just 1 point. Jim’s contribution to city council has been incredible and his absence on the dais will be disheartening.
- Austin: Our endorsed candidates, Chito Vela, Vanessa Fuentes, and Marc Duchen all won their respective races. With Kirk Watson winning another term as mayor, it remains to be seen whether these results accelerate or stagnate Austin’s transition away from coal.
What's Next for Texas' Environmental Movement?
The 2024 elections reinforced the challenges of achieving environmental progress in Texas' highly partisan, gerrymandered political landscape. While some pro-environment candidates made strides, most incumbents—and the policies they represent—remain firmly in place, and reliable pro-environment votes at the legislature and in local governments across Texas remain too small. Looking ahead, the Sierra Club Lone Star Chapter will continue to advocate for clean energy, water-smart policies, and a livable climate. The fight for a future Texas deserves is far from over. In 2025, we will look into several local races in cities across the state, as well as begin planning for the 2026 midterms.
Thank you to everyone who contributed their time, money, and effort to helping our endorsed candidates in 2024. Your support made such a big difference!