Photo: Colorado River Narrows, near Spicewood, Texas, by Al Braden.
By Cyrus Reed
It’s hot.
Yeah, it’s August in Texas, but anyone who has called Texas home for even just a few years knows this stretch of 100 degree days is not normal. It’s a new altered climate normal we should not ignore.
The summer extremes in Texas have been historic and so has electric demand, high bills, drought, deaths from heat, and…. a lack of political leadership.
Just how hot has this summer been? Remember the 2011 summer of hell? At least in Central Texas, we have shattered the record for most consecutive days above 100, with now 39 days with triple digits surpassing the 27 consecutive days of plus 100 heat we suffered through in 2011.
But it’s not just Central Texas experiencing extreme heat. Virtually everywhere in Texas set records for the hottest July, most notably El Paso, which saw a string of days above 110 degrees.
But I’m not here just to complain about the weather. ERCOT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the main electric grid for most of the state, has reported a new electric demand record multiple times, as every week seems to bring a new “peak’ demand.
According to their website, the official record now stands at 85,435 megawatts (MW), which occurred last week (August 10) over a single hour, while the official weekend record reached 84,567 MW on August 13 just a few days later. Those numbers are roughly 5,000 MW more than the peaks reached just a year ago.
We could see even higher demand this week as temperatures approach 110 degrees in some areas.
Somewhat amazingly, the combination of resources within ERCOT - gas, wind, solar, coal, nuclear, and a smattering of batteries - have managed to keep the lights on and ERCOT, while calling for conservation, has not fallen into required “EEAs” or Energy Emergency Alert. These are times when extra services are called upon when the market gets very tight. However, on Thursday August 17, ERCOT is predicting that demand could outstrip supply, meaning they might be forced to rely on emergency response services that day (essentially extra generators and loads that agree to come off during emergencies).
There is no doubt that renewable energy has played a key role this summer in keeping the lights on, as a doubling of solar capacity has led to record amounts of sunlight being converted into electricity. Indeed, solar power has set records both for the total amount of electricity put into the system - almost 13,500 MW on August 3 – and the percentage of the market, equaling about a third of all electricity on April 20 of this year at one time, a new record for solar in our state.
Overall, wind and solar have been providing about a third of all energy during this hot spell, with the majority still provided by gas plants. Coal and nuclear have provided about 10% each.
Wildfires, Droughts, and Death
Not surprisingly, the drought situation in much of the state is dire. The Texas Water Development Board provides a good summary on a weekly basis but suffice it to say lakes that millions of people depend on are at near historic lows, and many communities have activated drought contingency plans. A map below shows drought conditions on August 1.
Source: Texas Water Development Board
Wildfires are also up. Of Texas’s 254 counties, 181 have burn bans in place because of concerns for potential wildfires. According to Texas A&M’s Forest Service, there were some 21 contained wildfires and five active wildfires, many of them in Central Texas. Forecasts suggest that more are coming. In fact, Governor Abbott just declared an emergency in all 181 of the counties with burn bans based on the potential for wildfires
And then there is climate change contributing to fatalities. In Texas last year, at least 306 people died of heat-related causes, according to the state health department — the highest annual total in more than two decades. Among them were 158 nonresidents, a figure that includes migrants crossing the state’s harsh terrain. Statistics take time to collect but anecdotal evidence suggests this year could be even worse. For example, during a recent heat wave in Webb County, the Texas Tribune reported that 10 people died from heat-related illnesses within the city limits of Laredo between June 15 and July 3, a toll unheard-of in this heat-accustomed corner of Texas. At least two migrants were found dead outside city limits on local ranches during this time. In that same period, two hikers in Big Bend were killed due in part to hiking during extreme heat.
Data from the Texas Department of State Health Services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that thousands of Texans have sought emergency medical care in June and July related to the heat. Only about half of health facilities report heat-related illness data to the state’s health department, meaning the real toll on Texans’ health is almost certainly much worse.
In June, a CDC region that includes Texas and its bordering states set three new daily records for the number of heat-related emergency department visits since 2017, the first year for which data is available, according to the CDC.
On June 20, for example, more than 1,100 people per 100,000 emergency department visits were treated for heat-related illness by emergency departments in Texas and its neighboring states, a record high for the region.
So this summer the Legislature took action right?
Nope.
While the Governor was busy vetoing legislation in retaliation for the legislature not passing his version of property tax relief or vouchers for “school choice,” thus far special sessions have only been called for property tax relief. There is a strong rumor that the legislature will be called back to town in October for a special session on “school choice.”
Sierra Club has called on Gov. Abbott, asking him to prioritize programs to help Texans save energy and keep the grid up and running, as well as putting a piece of legislation he vetoed back on the agenda - better building codes. See more info about our letter here.
Construction worker woes
Speaking of legislation, the passage of HB 2127 has set off a court case by cities including Houston and San Antonio. Sometimes known as the “death star” bill, HB 2127 removes much of the regulatory powers of municipalities. The law, in effect, trumps local efforts like those of the City of Austin and City of Dallas requiring employers to give rest breaks including water during hot summer months..In addition to the city-led lawsuit, more than 170 organizations (including the Sierra Club) have called on the Texas Legislature and Gov. Abbott to adopt such a law to protect vulnerable workers working in conditions of extreme heat since HB 2127 officially bans cities from enacting policies like rest and water breaks for workers in extreme heat.. The Governor could add this to a future “special” session. Led by organizations like the Texas AFL-CIO and Workers Defense Fund, we are calling on our members to support this ask, by signing this action alert here.
So what are we doing to ensure the lights stay on during August?
ERCOT and the PUCT have taken some steps to increase reliability. First, ERCOT did implement a new ancillary service this summer known as ECRS (ERCOT Contingency Reliability Service) which has been called upon a number of times to provide a cushion to periods of high demand. The most recent event was due to a trip at one of the units of the Oak Grove coal plant, which went off suddenly and unexpectedly on a hot summer evening just as solar power began to wane. ECRS kicked in providing hundreds of megawatts of additional power through battery storage facilities, which are well suited to providing the new contingency service. Why a supposedly “reliable” service like coal failed so dramatically is unclear.
ERCOT is also coordinating with the Transmission and Distribution Utilities to have their demand response programs ready to go in the event they are needed since that can reduce demand by approximately 500 MW within ERCOT.
In addition, ERCOT is working with stakeholders on another service known as the Dispatchable Reliability Reserve Service, as required as part of the passage of HB 1500 by the Legislature. However, that service will not be ready until December 2024, but would provide another level of cushion as certain assets (mainly fossil fuel power plants) that are offline but could be available within four hours and provide energy for at least two hours would be eligible. As a member of ERCOT, we are working to make sure the service could also be provided both through loads reducing demand or newer longer-duration batteries.
A very controversial solution being proposed by ERCOT is to require that every wind, solar, and battery facility on the system implement “ride-through” voltage protection, such that the facilities do not trip offline in the event of a sudden change in voltage. Back in 2021, several facilities tripped offline in the Odessa region, as they were unable to deal with some sudden stress on the ERCOT system. While the new proposal - as developed by ERCOT through NOGRR 245 - makes intellectual sense, (we want our renewable energy and batteries to be able to function) the proposal has been rushed through and has unrealistic timelines and requirements.
Under the proposal, all facilities would need to have a plan in place by March 2024 ,and in most cases, have met the new requirements by the end of 2025. The problem is the companies that make the equipment have said they will not be ready in all cases either by March 2024 or most likely even by the end of 2025 for some types of facilities.
In response, a coalition of renewable, battery, and consumer groups, including the Sierra Club, have pushed back and are working on alternatives, including a longer timeline for compliance, a grandfather provision for older facilities such as those implemented before 2014, and also looking at other alternatives, such as synchronous condensers, the placement of grid-forming batteries in certain locations, and buttressing up the transmission system in general. The proposal is currently on hold at the Reliability and Operations Subcommittee, and will be considered again on September 7. A lot of comments have been filed on the NOGRR, including our own. A full set can be found here.
What’s the cheapest solution?
Unfortunately, the Legislature did not pass any major legislation requiring additional investments or coordination on energy efficiency efforts. One bill that did pass - SB 1699 - will require the state to set some residential demand response requirements by the end of 2024, but thus far the PUC has not begun any rulemaking on this aspect. Another bill that would have implemented better building codes for new buildings was vetoed by the Governor, though in fairness it wouldn’t have helped this summer, but in future years.
Remember that back in 2021, the PUCT announced as part of market reforms it would work to make required energy efficiency programs “more efficient,” but it has yet to take any specific action. In 2022, Sierra Club came up with its own proposal, backed by some 40 other consumer and environmental organizations, to enact new rules requiring utilities to meet more ambitious peak demand (from 0.4 to 0.7 percent reductions) and overall savings goals (from roughly 0.25 percent energy savings to one percent). That petition was rejected by the PUCT in September 2022, so we then asked the Legislature to do the same thing through statute. We supported SB 258, which would have raised the overall energy savings goal to one percent. Despite passage by the Senate, SB 258 fell on deaf ears in the House of Representatives, in large part due to opposition from the utilities themselves.
So we are back at the PUCT asking them not only to begin rulemaking on SB 1699 to encourage residential demand response, but on other aspects of the energy efficiency programs, including energy savings programs.
We also took matters into our own hands, entering into two mini-rate cases known as EECRFs (or Energy Efficiency Cost Recovery Factors) for two of the largest utilities, Oncor Electric (which serves the Dallas- Fort Worth area), and AEP Texas (which serves parts of both South and North Texas). Every year, utilities are required to submit a plan for their energy efficiency programs and propose a rate on customers to pay for it. Thus, those mini-rate cases involve how much residential and commercial customers are charged to run those utility programs as well as the amount of energy and peak demands they are expected to save.
We found in the course of these cases, both utilities were spending well under what they could be spending to help consumers save money. As an example in the case of Oncor, their proposed budget of about $50 million in consumer rebates (which includes $20 million in performance bonuses) was about half what they could be spending. A copy of our comments can be found here.
Still, we also decided to “settle” both cases given that the utilities were meeting the weak requirements and it was unlikely that a judge would agree that they need to spend more to meet the low statutory goals.
So what did we get out of the settlement? We get a seat at the table with the utilities and with their contractors. Specifically, under the provisions, the utilities are required to collaborate with the Sierra Club to explore additional programs for residential consumers, but to present the result of the collaboration at an upcoming meeting in the Spring of 2024. In addition, Sierra Club will be invited to participate with contractors in the near future on how to increase education about the program offerings, as well as federal funding opportunities. A copy of the settlement can be found here for Oncor. A very similar agreement was reached with AEP Texas, which can be found here.
Cut-offs and high prices
With deadly heat, consumer protection is also imperative. Texas law already protects consumers in the competitive market from being disconnected when extreme weather is declared, but there are still some situations where the law and PUCT rules are unclear. That’s why we are supportive of an emergency petition by AARP and the Texas Consumers Association to begin rulemaking to better protect Texans from cutoffs during extreme heat and cold. Under that petition, those two organizations are calling for the PUCT to suspend current extreme weather customer disconnection rules and impose a moratorium on electric service disconnections for lack of bill payment until September 15, and establish more specific rules in the meantime. A copy of the petition can be found here.
Want to add your voice? The PUCT has until August 20 to respond to the petition but in the meantime organizations and individuals can file supportive comments by going to the PUCT interchange and filing comments under Project 55286. A good source for how to file comments electronically with the Commission can be found here.
What if you need help with your bills?
While Texas has no state program to help pay utility bills, some utilities and retail electric providers have discount programs, while federal funding can be accessed in some cases through the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs. Information can be found here about how to find out if you can get help.
Stay tuned to this blog and our socials for more information and resources as we slog through the rest of this unrelenting heat.