What will a Biden presidency mean for North Carolina’s clean energy future? What sectors are likely to see gains?
The picture looks bright, particularly in the area of offshore wind, due to the combination of a second term for Gov. Roy Cooper and Joe Biden in the White House. With their support of green power plans, North Carolina's clean energy economy should get a boost, which would lead to less air pollution and improved environmental and public health.
President-elect Biden already has a bold $2 trillion climate change plan, which includes a goal to get the United States to 100 percent clean energy by 2035. In addition, Biden has committed to rejoining the Paris climate agreement, the central goal of which is to keep the rise of global temperatures below two degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial levels.
Unfortunately, through both Cooper and Biden have strong plans to address climate change, their policies will be slowed without helpful legislative branches.
The makeup of the U.S. Senate hinges on Georgia, where a runoff election and a special election for its two Senate seats in early January 2021 will determine which party holds control. If the GOP remains in charge, the Democratic Biden could implement some of his policies through executive orders.
North Carolina is in a similar situation with continued Republican control of the N.C. General Assembly and a Democratic governor. Cooper circumvented that roadblock in late 2018 by issuing an executive order on climate change and clean energy, which set a statewide goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 2005 levels.
Against this backdrop, what does the combination of Biden and Cooper mean for offshore wind? North Carolina has exceptional offshore wind energy potential. In fact, according to the Department of Energy, North Carolina’s coast has more offshore wind potential than any other state along the Atlantic Coast.
After years of promoting offshore drilling despite strong public opposition in coastal states, President Trump in mid-September banned oil and gas drilling from Virginia to the south, around the state of Florida, and through the Gulf of Mexico to the border of Florida and Alabama. When Biden takes office in January, he is expected to continue the ban on new oil and gas leasing on public lands and waters, and he may seek to streamline and support permitting and leasing policies for the nearly 30 gigawatts of offshore wind projects being planned on the U.S. East Coast.
Under Cooper’s leadership, North Carolina’s nascent offshore wind industry is expected to grow. North Carolina has already taken two important steps. First, on October 29, Cooper, Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan announced a collaboration between the three states to promote the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region for offshore wind projects.
Second, North Carolina launched an Offshore Wind Study to identify that sector's role in the state's future energy mix. One of the study's key deliverables is the N.C. Offshore Wind Supply Chain, which allows companies to publicly indicate their interest and ability to supply components and services for offshore wind projects. This would include everything from blades, towers, wind turbines and substation manufacturing to construction staging.
Avangrid Renewables is developing North Carolina’s first offshore wind lease for a capacity of 2 gigawatts (GW). Duke Energy’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for North and South Carolina also calls for inclusion of offshore wind. The IRP was filed in September and provides a number of scenarios for how Duke Energy will meet their energy needs through 2035. Scenarios include one that would omit any new natural gas supplies but add 7,400 MW of energy storage, 3,350 MW of demand response and energy efficiency, 700 MW of small nuclear reactors, 5,800 MW of offshore and onshore wind and 16,400 MW of solar energy. The IRP is not binding, however, and requires approval by the N.C. Utilities Commission, which will take it up in January 2021.
So, while there is forward movement on offshore wind at both the federal and state levels, additional progress in North Carolina remains uncertain if the state lacks a clear target for offshore wind implementation - plans that states including Virginia, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts already have.
Another important policy that would encourage wind energy development is expansion or extension of the federal wind investment tax credit. But that would likely be an uphill battle if the GOP retains control of the Senate. And federal renewable tax credits often require frequent re-approval, creating industry uncertainty. Additionally, offshore wind development also requires significant port infrastructure and millions of dollars of investment.
Whatever happens in the U.S. Senate, the N.C. Sierra Club will keep a keen and optimistic eye on how the Cooper and Biden administrations will leverage their authority to shift away from fossil fuels and to clean, renewable energy.