EDITOR’S NOTE: TO PUT THE RECENT UN CLIMATE SUMMIT AND THE PEOPLE’S CLIMATE MARCH IN CONTEXT, HERE IS A HANDY SUMMARY OF THE CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS TO DATE, ALONG WITH THE MAIN ISSUES THAT ARE SHAPING CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS.
by Lisa DiCaprio
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio and entered into force in 1994. Its purpose was to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions “at a level that will prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”
The UNFCCC requires all parties to publish “national inventories of their anthropogenic emissions” and identify their sources. The U.S. signed and ratified the UNFCCC in 1992 and submits greenhouse gas inventories developed annually by the EPA.
In 1995, the parties of the UNFCCC concluded that its provisions were inadequate. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, but did not enter into force until 2005 when it was ratified by 55 countries in the UNFCCC that were responsible for 55% of global carbon dioxide emissions in 1990.
Kyoto Protocol
The main features of the Kyoto Protocol are:
• The signatories agree to reduce six greenhouse gases which include carbon dioxide and methane.
• The industrialized nations must meet mandatory reduction targets from which the developing nations are exempted.
• There are two commitment periods for the Kyoto Protocol: 2008 to 2012 and 2013 to 2020.
In the first period, 37 industrialized nations and the European community committed to an overall 5.2% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 using a baseline of 1990 levels. Without this reduction, the increase in emissions would have been 29% by 2010. Specific national goals included a 12.5% reduction for the UK and 6% for Japan.
• Annual meetings are held by the Conference of the Parties (COP meetings). The next meeting will be held in December in Lima, Peru. The 2014/2015 negotiations for a new treaty will conclude at the COP December 21, 2015 meeting in Paris. From the outset of the Kyoto Protocol, the U.S. and China have contended over their commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In 1997, the Byrd-Hagel “sense of the Senate” non-binding resolution, which passed 95 to 0, opposed U.S. ratification of the protocol because it exempted developing nations and “would seriously harm the economy of the United States.” The Clinton administration signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, but did not bring it to the Senate for ratification where it would have faced certain defeat.
Asserting a “right to develop,” China has claimed the U.S., as the world’s historically largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, must act before China to accept mandatory restrictions on its emissions.
For their part, the “least developed nations” have challenged the exemption of large developing nations from the protocol, emphasizing that they have contributed the least amount of emissions, but are experiencing the most severe climate change impacts which, in some cases, are threatening their very existence.
The contention between the U.S. and the large developing nations has obstructed the establishment of a new, legally binding goal for emissions for the second commitment period, which began in 2013 and will conclude in 2020.
The COP 15 meeting in 2009 concluded with the non-binding Copenhagen Accord, which allowed UNFCCC parties to set voluntary targets for 2020. The U.S. and the major developing nations agreed to make these commitments. The Obama Administration pledged a reduction of 17% by 2020 using a baseline of 2005.
Two years later, at the COP 17 meeting, the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action was established to develop a new greenhouse gas reduction protocol “applicable to all parties” (developed and developing nations).
By this time, China’s share of global emissions had increased so dramatically since 1997 that it was the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for 8.7 gigatons out of 32.6 gigatons of the global total, as compared to the 5.5 gigatons of emissions generated by the U.S., which still exceeds China in per capita emissions. (Of the 5.5 gigatons, 2.8 were from electrical power plants and 1.9 gigatons from vehicle tailpipe emissions.)
The working group for the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action is to conclude its deliberations by 2015 so that a new protocol can be adopted with legal force at the COP 21 meeting in December 2015
Paris and be implemented for the period beyond 2020.
These deliberations will include:
(1) a review the science to determine if the 2 degrees Celsius limit for a rise in global warming, which was set in Copenhagen in 2009, is too high, or if a lower 1.5 degrees Celsius limit is required, and
(2) an outline of the collective action required to prevent the average global temperature from rising.
The Negotiations: 2014-15
As part of the negotiations in 2014/2015, each government will present a proposal for the reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions.
These negotiations will be shaped by five main factors:
• The response to President Obama’s intention, as reported in late August, that the U.S. will propose a politically binding agreement that would “name and shame” countries into reducing their emissions.
Encompassing the large developing nations, such as China and India, the agreement is envisioned as a substitute for a new legally binding treaty which would require ratification by two-thirds of the U.S. Senate, a requirement that cannot be met given its current composition.
• U.S. leadership, in proposing an ambitious commitment to reduce its emissions, will acknowledge the historic responsibility of the U.S. for one quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution. The U.S. is one of 12 countries that generate 70% of all global emissions.
350NYC is launching a national petition calling for President Obama to commit the U.S. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030, using a baseline of 2005. This scientifically feasible reduction can be achieved by energy conservation, efficiency and renewable energy.
• Global mobilizations, such as the People’s Climate March and other initiatives throughout 2014/2015, will try to compel governments to take immediate and decisive action.
• The public as well as the corporate/financial sectors are increasingly aware of how climate change adversely affects the entire global economy and of the economic benefits of transitioning to a green future.
• Recent scientific studies emphasize the window of opportunity is rapidly closing to prevent catastrophic climate change.
On September 9, for example, the World Meteorological Association reported that “the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere actually increased last year at the fastest rate for nearly 30 years.”
Lisa DiCaprio is a clinical associate professor of social sciences at NYU and a member of the Sierra Club and 350NYC. This article is adapted from her presentation, “Climate Conversations: Why the UN’s Climate Summit is Important to All of Us,” in New York City sponsored by the Trinity Peace & Restorative Justice Community, Food & Water Watch, 350NYC and GreenFaith.