by Moisha Blechman
Don't be fooled by the cool comfort of the summer of 2014. It disguises a new and fundamental change in how weather is created. In fact, we should be very suspicious about that coolness we enjoyed.
After all, the planet as a whole was hotter in 2013/14 than ever before recorded. The planet is heating up. An example important to us in the East is California, our source of vegetables and fruits every winter. What will it produce this winter if it is in a state of devastating drought? What is the basis for the new weather of extremes we see everywhere? How does it work?
It all hinges on the Arctic. What global warming is doing to the Arctic is causing climate change all over the world. It is disrupting all historical weather patterns.
We have known for the past 100 years that changing the composition of the atmosphere would disturb radiative balance. Radiative balance is the crucial balance between solar energy retained by the planet and solar energy reflected to outer space. It is the bottom-line equation for a healthy planet. In response to the increase from 280 ppm of CO2 to 400 ppm of CO2, the atmospheric blanket is warming the earth. The Arctic has heated up by an astonishing degree and is not only continuing to warm by several mechanisms at once, but has added another devastating consequence. Let’s take a brief look at these changes.
Jet stream shift
The first is a big change iin the path of the jet stream. It is caused by a decrease in the difference between Arctic temperatures and mid-latitude temperatures. The big difference in temperatures between the two regions maintained a jet stream that separated the two regions with a defined circular path that traveled swiftly. It mixed temperatures and it changed the weather frequently enough to deliver the alternating mix of rain and sun we have enjoyed for millennia. The warmer Arctic has erased the temperature difference.
As a result, the jet stream has dramatically changed its path to a huge loop descending south, bringing the cool air we are experiencing in New York with it. That movement is robbing the Arctic of its cool air and pushing mid-latitude warm air into the Arctic, warming it even more. At the same time, the jet stream is no longer energized by the energy differences. IT has become much slower, to the point of blocking weather changes. This is why a hot and dry period will last much longer, building up intensity, or a wet and rainy period will do the same. In that way, the change in the path and the speed of the jet stream is a big factor affecting all weather in the northern hemisphere – for the worse, and permanently. I would call it the first tipping point.
Arctic’s vulnerability
Seventy percent of the global warming has been absorbed by the oceans. At first it warned the upper regions of the water, but has started to warm its depths as well. For the moment we are spared feeling the increased heat, but as the oceans circulate, they are delivering that heat to the Arctic. Arctic ice is especially vulnerable to quick melting because, unlike, the Antarctic, it rests on water. The assault on the ice of the Arctic is from the water below as well as from the air above. The melting of the Arctic is so rapid it is predicted to be gone by 2016. We are losing the vast area of reflectivity of solar energy from the white ice of not only the Arctic, but all of the northern lakes and expanses of Canada and Siberia. That in itself destabilizes the radiative balance.
Worse, the exposed dark water is absorbing heat, which further amplifies ice disintegration and planetary solar heat retention. This is a self-amplifying warming mechanism. For that reason, I would call it the second tipping point.
This has happned due to the atmospheric increase in CO2. It was happening even before reaching 400 ppm of CO2 and before reaching a 1 degree Celsius average increase.
It demonstrates the utter folly of the United Nations’ IPCC declaring that the planet can safely go to a 2 degree C average temperature increase, and then stop. What magic will governments use? At an average increase of just 0.8 degree C, the human enterprise is already under siege.
The new warmth and loss of ice has added another dimension to global warming and it is just now gaining momentum. Throughout the Arctic seas and across Alaska, Canada, and Siberia, are ancient deposits of organic matter. They are held inert, as if in a freezer, and are called permafrost. The melting of the permafrost has transferred them to the equivalent of a refrigerator where they are beginning to rot, releasing CO2 , and especially, methane gas. The amounts are measured in the gigatons and are unknown. But does measuring total catastrophe really matter? What is known is that the volatile methane is 125 times more powerful than other greenhouse gases and unlimited quantities are available for release. The CO2 was just the trigger.
Methane is already bubbling up through water columns from huge underwater deposits. In the Siberian tundra, a crater between 60 and 80 meters wide and reaching deep into the Earth has recently appeared. Then two more were found. They are explosive bents of vast quantities of methane gas.
Scientists believe that as permafrost thaws ever faster, methane can become the dominant climate-forcing agent, warming the planet inexorably. Methane will quickly create unsupportable changes to the climate. It has been clear, to anyone who wanted to know and think for many years, that maintaining the historical ice is key. The extent of that truth is now borne out by the complexity and rapidity of what is happening now. This is the third, and extraordinary, tipping point. The only possibility to avoid a dead world is to start to cool the Arctic. A living Earth depends on putting the ice back.
What I have written above is an introduction to understanding the rapid changes now occurring all over the planet. They constitute a climate crisis needing immediate attention and appropriate goals.
I suggest making the time to Google these sources:
· Arctic Emergency: Scientists Speak;
· Arctic Methane Emergency Group (or EMEG); and
· Arctic News, especially a video, The Arctic Monster’s Rapid Rise.
These are excellent resources.
Moisha Blechman chairs the Chapter’s Publications Committee and the Climate Crisis Committee.