December 22, 2018
Compiled by Lisa DiCaprio, Conservation Chair, NYC Group
This column provides resources on three climate change reports that were issued in October and November 2018: the UN IPCC report, Volume II of the National Climate Assessment, and The Lancet report on climate change and public health.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published in October 2018 compares climate change impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming. The report concludes that the planet will warm 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2040 if emissions continue to increase at their current rate. The comparisons of climate change impacts include the following:
- Thirty percent of the world’s coral reefs may survive at 1.5°C of global warming, but virtually all coral reefs will disappear with a warming of 2°C.
- The Arctic will probably be several degrees warmer, which will increase ice melt and sea level rise.
- The melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet may become irreversible.
- The availability of fresh water around the Mediterranean will be reduced by 17% instead of 9%.
- Extreme heat will affect 37% instead of 14% of the world’s population. The largest increase in “highly unusual” hot days will occur in the tropics.
The IPCC report also outlines solutions. As the IPCC press release states: “The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require ‘rapid and far-reaching’ transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030 reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air.”
- The IPCC website on the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5° C
- Coral Davenport, “Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040,” The New York Times, October 7, 2018
- Brad Plumer and Nadja Popovich, “Why Half a Degree of Global Warming is a Big Deal,” The New York Times, October 9, 2018
- Bill McKibben, “A Very Grim Forecast,” New York Review of Books, November 22, 2018
- Kendra Pierre-Louis, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018,” The New York Times, December 5, 2018
Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, which is mandated by Congress and issued by 13 federal agencies, was released in November 2018. “Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States” describes the potentially catastrophic consequences of current and future climate change impacts for the US economy (manufacturing, trade, energy production, fisheries, and agriculture), infrastructure, ecosystems and ecosystem services, and public health. These impacts, which will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, could result in a ten percent reduction of the US gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100. “Volume I: Climate Science Special Report” was published in 2017. The National Climate Assessment focuses on the US and is published every four years, as required by the Global Change Research Act of 1990.
- The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States
- Coral Davenport and Kendra Pierre-Louis, “U.S. Climate Study Has Grim Warning of Economic Risks,” The New York Times, November 24, 2018
- Brad Plumer and Henry Fountain, “Gist of Latest Report on Global Warming: Fears Are Now Reality,” The New York Times, November 24, 2018:
- Somini Sengupta, “Coal Endangers a Planet Unable to Stop Using It,” The New York Times, November 25, 2018
- Brad Plumer, “Five Big Ways the United States Will Have to Adapt to Climate Change,” The New York Times, November 26, 2018
- Lisa Friedman, “Reality of Climate Change Undermines an Ambition for ‘Energy Dominance,’” The New York Times, November 30, 2018
In November 2018, The Lancet, a British public health journal, published “Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come.” The report describes climate change impacts relating to extreme heat, lost work hours, infectious diseases, drought and floods, and food production. These are some key findings.
- 157 million more people became susceptible to heat-related health risks from 2007 to 2017 and the amount of work time lost because of heat waves increased from 87 billion hours to 153 billion hours
- Changes in temperature and rainfall are transforming habitats for insects, such as mosquitoes, and tropical diseases may occur in the US in the future
- Extreme droughts and floods are adversely affecting food production and public health
- Higher temperatures and extreme weather are reducing crop yields in 30 countries
The Lancet, “Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come,” November 28, 2018.
For a summary of The Lancet report and an accompanying editorial, see Somini Sengupta and Kendra Pierre-Louis, “Warming of Cascading Health Rises from the Rapidly Changing Climate,” The New York Times, November 29, 2018.